For a bit of fun, here is a trial run at predicting this weekend’s EPL matches using my EI ratings. I haven’t compared these with anyone else’s odds yet but they generally look about what I would have expected.
Poor QPR don’t seem to have much chance holding out against Manchester United, even playing at home they are only rated at having a 9% chance of winning.
It looks like it could be a good weekend for Arsenal to bounce back from their Champions League defeat as they have a massive 67% chance of beating Aston Villa.
Personally, I am surprised Newcastle are rated quite so highly against Southampton. I wonder if this may be due to Newcastle being so strong last season while Southampton only have this season’s data for generating EI ratings from? If so, it may be that I need to go back and tweak the equation weightings slightly to account for situations like this.
| Match | Home (%) | Draw (%) | Away (%) |
| Fulham Vs Stoke | 46 | 25 | 29 |
| Arsenal Vs Aston Villa | 67 | 15 | 17 |
| Norwich Vs Everton | 29 | 27 | 43 |
| QPR Vs Man United | 9 | 23 | 68 |
| Reading Vs Wigan | 43 | 25 | 31 |
| West Brom Vs Sunderland | 47 | 24 | 28 |
| Man City Vs Chelsea | 54 | 22 | 24 |
| Newcastle Vs Southampton | 53 | 22 | 25 |
| West Ham Vs Tottenham | 19 | 27 | 54 |
JVent - February 25, 2013
Awesome EL predictions you made you only miss two predictions but nobody would of know that Reading Pavel Pogrebnyak was going to receive a red card. So that would only make one wrong prediction. Hope you share the formula later on when you perfected
Also you got one or the most interesting blogs about Football.
Martin Eastwood - February 25, 2013
Thanks! Was definitely a good start, let’s see if it continues :)
Casey - February 27, 2013
Oh goodness I would love to apply this to MLS. New season starts Saturday. No new teams.
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Thanks!