Archives

• October 01, 2025 - Shrinkage, Uncertainty, and Son Heung-min: Using Bayesian Methods to Identify Finishing Ability
• September 14, 2025 - From Biased Odds to Fair Probabilities: Removing the Bookmaker's Overround
• August 14, 2025 - Penaltyblog v1.5.0: Faster Models, Smarter Queries, and a Sharper Edge
• July 16, 2025 - How Accurate Are Soccer Odds? A Data Dive into 250 Million Betting Lines
• June 10, 2025 - MatchFlow 1.4.0: Optimizing, Visualizing, and Validating your Data Pipelines
• May 25, 2025 - Introducing MatchFlow: a JSON-native query engine for football data.
• May 01, 2025 - Better Metrics for Football Forecasts: Moving Beyond the Ranked Probability Score
• April 14, 2025 - Pi Ratings: The Smarter Way to Rank Football Teams
• March 10, 2025 - Football Prediction Models: Which Ones Work the Best?
• January 08, 2025 - Calculating Expected Threat in Python Using Linear Algebra
• December 02, 2022 - Estimating Goal Expectancy From Bookmaker's Odds
• November 04, 2022 - Penaltyblog Python Package Updated to v0.5.1
• October 18, 2022 - Ten Years of pena.lt/y/blog
• August 05, 2022 - Scraping Football Data Using the penaltyblog Python Package
• August 25, 2021 - Predicting Football Results Using Bayesian Modelling with Python and PyMC3
• June 24, 2021 - Predicting Football Results Using Python and the Dixon and Coles Model
• June 18, 2021 - Predicting Football Results With the Poisson Distribution
• May 19, 2021 - Which Young Players Will be Stars?
• May 03, 2021 - Predicting Player Career Trajectories
• November 23, 2019 - Sharing xG Using Multi-touch Attribution Modelling
• August 22, 2019 - VAR, What is it Good For?
• November 21, 2018 - Opta Pro Forum 2018
• May 25, 2018 - Automated Feature Engineering
• September 11, 2017 - Deep Learning in R Using Keras
• July 17, 2017 - An Alternatve to Radars for Visualising Football Data
• March 11, 2017 - Opta Pro Forum 2017
• December 20, 2016 - Opta Pro Forum 2016
• June 30, 2016 - A Footballer Recommendation Engine
• April 29, 2016 - Expected Goals and Uncertainty
• March 21, 2016 - Ranking Football Teams Using Google's Page Rank Algorithm
• February 29, 2016 - It’s Not Just The Money: Quality of Signings Suggest China Could Become a Major Power in Club Football
• December 12, 2015 - Frequency of Draws in Football
• November 24, 2015 - Updated Massey Ratings
• August 07, 2015 - Mathematically Optimising Your Fantasy Football Team: Redux
• July 13, 2015 - Expected Goals And Support Vector Machines
• April 23, 2015 - PlayerRatings And False Negatives
• April 09, 2015 - Backtesting PlayerRatings
• March 09, 2015 - PlayerRatings And Team Quality
• February 26, 2015 - PlayerRating: A Bayesian Method For Evaluating Football Players
• January 21, 2015 - Mathematically Optimising Your Fantasy Football Team: Update
• December 04, 2014 - Massey Ratings For Football Part Two
• November 27, 2014 - Massey Ratings For Football Part One
• November 04, 2014 - English Premier League Pythagorean
• November 02, 2014 - Predicting Football Using R
• August 28, 2014 - Expected Goals: Foot Shots Versus Headers
• July 24, 2014 - Mathematically Optimising Your Fantasy Football Team
• April 22, 2014 - Expected Goals And Exponential Decay
• April 16, 2014 - Expected Goals: The Y Axis
• April 04, 2014 - English Premier League Pythagorean Update
• March 01, 2014 - Expected Goals Updated
• February 15, 2014 - Actual Goals Versus Expected Goals
• February 12, 2014 - Expected Goals For All
• February 10, 2014 - Comparing Players Using Cluster Analysis
• January 20, 2014 - EPL 2013/2014: Football Pythagorean So Far
• September 30, 2013 - UEFA Champions League – Route To The Final
• August 30, 2013 - Analysing Football Teams Using Cluster Analysis and Principal Component Analysis
• June 19, 2013 - Anouncement
• May 23, 2013 - Betting With The Eastwood Index And Kelly Criterion
• May 21, 2013 - Did The Eastwood Index Beat The Bookmakers?
• May 17, 2013 - EI Match Probabilities for the English Premier League
• May 10, 2013 - EI Match Probabilities for the English Premier League
• May 10, 2013 - MLS Player Salaries: 2013
• May 07, 2013 - The Eastwood Index, MLS and Parity
• May 03, 2013 - EI Match Probabilities for the English Premier League
• May 02, 2013 - How Much Does Luck Affect MLS?
• April 30, 2013 - How Much Does Luck Affect Football?
• April 28, 2013 - What Is A Meaningful Sample Size?
• April 26, 2013 - EI Match Probabilities for the English Premier League
• April 19, 2013 - EI Match Probabilities for the English Premier League
• April 12, 2013 - EI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
• April 05, 2013 - EI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
• April 02, 2013 - Understanding Total Shot Ratio in Football
• March 28, 2013 - EI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
• March 21, 2013 - How Accurate Are The EI Football Predictions?
• March 13, 2013 - Is Brendan Rogers Improving Liverpool?
• March 08, 2013 - EI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
• March 01, 2013 - EI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
• February 28, 2013 - EI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
• February 21, 2013 - EI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
• February 21, 2013 - Introducing the Eastwood Index
• February 07, 2013 - Understanding Elo Ratings Part Two
• January 31, 2013 - Understanding Elo Ratings
• January 25, 2013 - Predicting Football Matches Using Shot Data Part Two
• January 22, 2013 - What Is The Chance of Bradford City reaching Wembley?
• January 21, 2013 - Predicting Football Matches Using Shot Data
• January 18, 2013 - Predicting The Premier League Using The Refined Pythagorean Equation
• January 02, 2013 - How Early In The Season Can Pythagorean Predictions Be Made?
• December 15, 2012 - What Has Caused Dimitar Berbatov’s Recent Lack of Goals?
• December 10, 2012 - Using the Pythagorean Expectation Across Leagues Wordwide
• December 03, 2012 - Applying the Pythagorean Expectation to Football: Part Two
• November 26, 2012 - Applying the Pythagorean Expectation to Football: Part One
• November 20, 2012 - Disparity in European Football Leagues
• November 18, 2012 - Analysis of André Villas-Boas Vs Harry Redknapp
• November 12, 2012 - Effect of Season Length on Deciding the League Champion
• November 08, 2012 - How Often Does The Best Team Win The League?
• November 02, 2012 - The Poisson Model So Far
• October 29, 2012 - Using Poisson to Predict Football Matches
• October 26, 2012 - Influence Of Clean Sheets
• October 22, 2012 - Football + Mathematics
• October 19, 2012 - It's Fergie Time
• October 18, 2012 - Hello World