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Frequency of Draws in Football.

Posted: 2015-12-12 19:30:00+00:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

There has been some discussion and misunderstanding around the low frequency of draws in football on my Twitter feed recently so I thought I'd just give a quick recap around why the probabilities of draws are so low...

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Updated Massey Ratings.

Posted: 2015-11-24 19:30:00+00:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

Updated Massey ratings for the English Premier League showing how well teams are really doing when you account for their strength of schedule...

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Mathematically Optimising Your Fantasy Football Team: Redux.

Posted: 2015-08-07 19:30:00+01:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

The Premier League’s fantasy football is back ready for the new season so I thought I’d run through an example of how linear programming can help you mathematically select your team.

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Expected Goals And Support Vector Machines.

Posted: 2015-07-13 19:30:00+01:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

I've written about expected goals on this website before but I've changed approach recently so I thought I'd write up some of the different ideas I've been playing around with...

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PlayerRatings And False Negatives.

Posted: 2015-04-23 19:30:00+01:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

My last article looked at how well my PlayerRatings model predicted which young players would go on to have successful careers. This time we explore false negatives - which top players may have wrongly had low PlayerRatings in their youth...

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Backtesting PlayerRatings.

Posted: 2015-04-09 19:30:00+01:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

Following my last article discussing my PlayerRating model for quantifying footballers, JackIO challenged me to test the model by looking at what young players it recommended...

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PlayerRatings And Team Quality.

Posted: 2015-03-09 19:30:00+00:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

My previous article introduced PlayerRatings, a mathematical model I’ve been working on over the past few months to quantify the ability of individual footballers. One of the nice characteristics of this approach is that player ratings can be aggregated together to create team ratings...

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PlayerRating: A Bayesian Method For Evaluating Football Players.

Posted: 2015-02-26 19:30:00+00:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

I originally submitted the idea behind this article to the recent Opta Pro Forum and although it was turned down I thought I’d write it up anyway incase anyone else was interested in the results...

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Mathematically Optimising Your Fantasy Football Team: Update.

Posted: 2015-01-21 19:30:00+00:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

It's transfer window time so here's your mathematically optimised fantasy football team...

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Massey Ratings For Football Part Two.

Posted: 2014-12-04 19:30:00+00:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

In part one I introduced Massey Ratings and how they can be used to rank football teams in a way that accounts for their strength of schedule. Next, we’ll take a look at how Massey Ratings can be extended further to look at team’s attack and defence strength separately.

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Pena.lt/y is a site dedicated to football analytics. You'll find lots of research, tutorials and examples on the blog and on GitHub.

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