Insights, research, and analysis on football analytics
The next stage for my Pythagorean's development is to testing whether it can be applied to leagues outside the EPL. Having one Pythagorean equation that could be used globally is preferable to having to create specific equations for each league.
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Part two of guide to applying the baseball pythagorean to football.
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Introduction to applying the baseball pythagorean to football.
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Having mentioned the effect disparity plays on determining the league champions in previous posts I thought it would be interesting to look at the actual levels of disparity currently present in football.
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Since taking over as manager of Tottenham Hotspur, André Villas-Boas has been trapped in former Spurs manager Harry Redknapp’s shadow. Every tactical decision or team selection Villas-Boas makes is seemingly compared with Redknapp’s previous achievements. And after Tottenham’s...
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In my previous article I looked at the interplay between luck and skill in determining the league champions. There is another parameter though that also interacts with luck and that is the structure of the league itself.
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How often does the best team win the league? Probably not as often as you think as it is not just talent that is required for success; a decent amount of luck is needed too.
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In my last article I wrote about my experiences using the Poisson distribution to predict the outcome of football matches. The results so far have been rather disappointing so I thought I would have a look at where things were going wrong.
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The Power Of Goals recently blogged about using the Poisson distribution to predict the outcome of football matches. I have been evaluating the predictive ability of the Poisson for the English Premier League (EPL) this season so I thought I would share my experiences too.
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To make much sense of the statistics available for football we need to have an understanding of their context so I am planning on starting off simple by looking at baselines for various events and statistics while I build up the information required to start a mathematical model.
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