Insights, research, and analysis on football analytics
For a bit of fun, here is a trial run at predicting this weekend’s EPL matches using my EI ratings. I haven’t compared these with anyone else’s odds yet but they generally look about what I would have expected....
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On the whole, the Elo system works okay but it was not designed with football in mind and so there are some issues with it - for example it can only handle two distinct outcomes – winning and losing...
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Now that we understand the theory behind Elo ratings, let’s take a look at how to calculate them and how to make them more relevant to football...
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The Elo rating system was originally devised by its creator Arphad Elo as a way to calculate the average skill levels of two chess players. Although the system was created specifically for chess it has also been adapted to many other games and sports, including international f...
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Having found that the correlation between goals scored and shots on target was the strongest of the various shooting variables I had available to me, I decided to see how well they could predict the outcome of a football match....
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With League Two’s Bradford City only one match away from playing at Wembley in the League Cup final I thought it would be interesting to see what the chances were of them getting this far...
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Previously on this blog I have discussed my attempts at using the Poisson distribution to predict the number of goals scored in football matches. So far, the results have been...
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New article for Betting Expert looking at the current Premier League standings compared with the predictions from my refined version of the Pythagorean Expectation.
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The next stage for developing my refined version of the Pythagorean equation is to characterise how many weeks of data it actually needs to make accurate football predictions...
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Up until week 12 of the season, Dimitar Berbatov was one of the English Premier League’s top goal scorers and goal creators. However, since then he has gone 450 minutes without registering either a goal or an assist, coinciding with Bryan Ruiz’s injury...
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